What predicts who develops the chronic syndrome given infection (conversion), with
emphasis on variables measured during the acute phase. Four causal questions — susceptibility to
infection, to severe acute disease, to conversion, and to non-recovery — are kept strictly separate
and never aggregated. A predictor measured after the outcome began is not counted as temporality-valid,
which excludes most of what the literature calls a "risk factor". No effect is pooled across pathogens:
different contrasts and adjustment sets are not comparable numbers.
Null results are recorded, not dropped — they are 29% of this table and the reason to build
this rather than read a review. Factors are ranked by replication and temporality validity, never by
effect size.
One row per (factor or harmonised construct × outcome × question), sorted by how many
cohorts tested it. The two rows that stand out — acute severity (replicated) and the long tail tested
exactly once — are the finding.
One row per (factor/harmonised-construct × outcome × question). Sorted by replication (cohorts tested), showing null results alongside significant ones. No pooled effect is computed — different contrasts and adjustment sets are not poolable.
Factor / construct
Outcome
Question
Cohorts
Pathogens
Significant
Null
Sign concordance
Temporality-valid
Median predictors tested
acute:illness-severity-composite
Any persistent symptom
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
1
0
1/1
1/1
n/r
immune:convalescent-antibody-titre
Any persistent symptom
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
1
0
1/1
0/1
n/r
prior:chronic-lung-disease
Any persistent symptom
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
1
0
1/1
1/1
n/r
host:sex-female
Fatigue
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
1
0
1/1
0/1
n/r
gene:rabgap1l
Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
1
0
1/1
1/1
n/r
gene:fbxl4
Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
1
0
1/1
1/1
n/r
gene:olfm4
Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
1
0
1/1
1/1
n/r
gene:ca10
Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
1
0
1/1
1/1
n/r
acute:illness-severity-composite
Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
1
0
1/1
1/1
n/r
gene:foxp4-locus
Long COVID / post-COVID condition (caseness)
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
1
0
1/1
1/1
n/r
gene:hla-dqb1-0602
Narcolepsy (incident)
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
1
0
1/1
1/1
1
host:age
Arthralgia / rheumatic musculoskeletal pain
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
1
0
1/1
0/1
n/r
host:age
Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
0
1
—
1/1
n/r
host:sex-female
Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
0
1
—
1/1
n/r
prior:premorbid-psychiatric
Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
0
1
—
1/1
n/r
pathogen:infecting-agent
Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
0
1
—
1/1
n/r
immune:acute-cytokines
Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness
Conversion (given infection → syndrome)
1
1
0
1
—
1/1
n/r
Predictors by disease
A separate subsection for each disease/trigger — everything tested in that syndrome's cohorts,
significant and null, with contrast, measurement window and temporality per row.
Temporality-valid predictors only (pre-infection / acute-phase / genetic, in prospective-inception or registry cohorts). Only domains with at least one tested factor are shown; the empty cells within them are the point — most acute-laboratory factors are never tested against the chronic outcome.
tested, significant tested, null tested, conflicting· never tested
Factor
SARS-CoV-2
Borrelia burgdorferi (Lyme disease)
Giardia duodenalis (lamblia)
Zika virus
Dengue virus
Unknown / idiopathic trigger
Mixed (EBV / Ross River virus / Coxiella burnetii)
Which cohorts analysed any acute-phase factor against the chronic outcome (✓), collected but did not analyse it (c), or neither (·). The "c" cells are recoverable through collaboration.
Cohort
Acute clinical
Acute laboratory
Acute pathogen
Acute treatment
Acute immune
Bergen COVID-19 home-isolated cohort
✓
·
·
·
✓
Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study
✓
·
✓
·
✓
Every estimate, by factor
All estimates for each factor across cohorts, with contrast, measurement window, adjustment
set and temporality shown per row.