Null results are recorded, not dropped — they are 29% of this table and the reason to build
this rather than read a review. Factors are ranked by replication and temporality validity, never by
effect size.
Replication table
One row per (factor or harmonised construct × outcome × question), sorted by how many
cohorts tested it. The two rows that stand out — acute severity (replicated) and the long tail tested
exactly once — are the finding.
One row per (factor/harmonised-construct × outcome × question). Sorted by replication (cohorts tested), showing null results alongside significant ones. No pooled effect is computed — different contrasts and adjustment sets are not poolable.
| Factor / construct | Outcome | Question | Cohorts | Pathogens | Significant | Null | Sign concordance | Temporality-valid | Median predictors tested |
|---|
| acute:illness-severity-composite | Any persistent symptom | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | n/r |
| immune:convalescent-antibody-titre | Any persistent symptom | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 0/1 | n/r |
| prior:chronic-lung-disease | Any persistent symptom | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | n/r |
| host:sex-female | Fatigue | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 0/1 | n/r |
| gene:rabgap1l | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | n/r |
| gene:fbxl4 | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | n/r |
| gene:olfm4 | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | n/r |
| gene:ca10 | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | n/r |
| acute:illness-severity-composite | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | n/r |
| gene:foxp4-locus | Long COVID / post-COVID condition (caseness) | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | n/r |
| gene:hla-dqb1-0602 | Narcolepsy (incident) | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 1 |
| host:age | Arthralgia / rheumatic musculoskeletal pain | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1/1 | 0/1 | n/r |
| host:age | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 1/1 | n/r |
| host:sex-female | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 1/1 | n/r |
| prior:premorbid-psychiatric | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 1/1 | n/r |
| pathogen:infecting-agent | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 1/1 | n/r |
| immune:acute-cytokines | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 1/1 | n/r |
Predictors by disease
A separate subsection for each disease/trigger — everything tested in that syndrome's cohorts,
significant and null, with contrast, measurement window and temporality per row.
Jump to disease: Chikungunya virus · Dengue virus · SARS-CoV-2 · Pandemrix (AS03-adjuvanted H1N1 influenza vaccine) · Mixed (EBV / Ross River virus / Coxiella burnetii) · Unknown / idiopathic trigger
1 significant · 0 null · 0 temporality-valid · from 1 cohort
| Factor | Contrast | Window | Outcome | Direction | Question | Model | Temporality | Cohort |
|---|
| Age | older age (per decade / older vs younger) | Pre-infection | Arthralgia / rheumatic musculoskeletal pain @ 24mo | ↑ increases risk | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | multivariable logistic | invalid | TELECHIK cohort |
1 significant · 0 null · 0 temporality-valid · from 1 cohort
| Factor | Contrast | Window | Outcome | Direction | Question | Model | Temporality | Cohort |
|---|
| Female sex | female vs male (among dengue patients) | Genetic / fixed | Fatigue @ 2mo | ↑ increases risk | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | univariable | invalid | Colombo Dengue Study |
4 significant · 0 null · 3 temporality-valid · from 2 cohorts
| Factor | Contrast | Window | Outcome | Direction | Question | Model | Temporality | Cohort |
|---|
| Acute illness severity (composite index) → Acute severity | higher acute illness severity | Acute phase | Any persistent symptom @ 6mo | ↑ increases risk | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | multivariable logistic | valid | Bergen COVID-19 home-isolated cohort |
| Convalescent antibody titre | higher convalescent anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titre | Early convalescent (≤3mo) | Any persistent symptom @ 6mo | ↑ increases risk | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | multivariable logistic | invalid | Bergen COVID-19 home-isolated cohort |
| Pre-existing chronic lung disease | pre-existing chronic lung disease vs none | Pre-infection | Any persistent symptom @ 6mo | ↑ increases risk | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | multivariable logistic | valid | Bergen COVID-19 home-isolated cohort |
| FOXP4 locus (rs9367106) | rs9367106 risk allele vs reference (per-allele) | Genetic / fixed | Long COVID / post-COVID condition (caseness) | ↑ increases risk | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | mixed effects | valid | Long COVID Host Genetics Initiative GWAS |
1 significant · 0 null · 1 temporality-valid · from 1 cohort
| Factor | Contrast | Window | Outcome | Direction | Question | Model | Temporality | Cohort |
|---|
| HLA-DQB1*06:02 carriage | HLA-DQB1*06:02 positive vs negative | Genetic / fixed | Narcolepsy (incident) | ↑ increases risk | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | None | valid | Finland Pandemrix childhood narcolepsy cohort |
1 significant · 5 null · 6 temporality-valid · from 1 cohort
| Factor | Contrast | Window | Outcome | Direction | Question | Model | Temporality | Cohort |
|---|
| Acute illness severity (composite index) → Acute severity | higher acute illness severity (per unit of the acute symptom-severity score) | Acute phase | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness @ 6mo | ↑ increases risk | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | multivariable logistic | valid | Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study |
| Age | per year of age | Pre-infection | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness @ 6mo | null result | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | multivariable logistic | valid | Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study |
| Female sex | female vs male | Genetic / fixed | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness @ 6mo | null result | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | multivariable logistic | valid | Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study |
| Premorbid psychiatric history | premorbid psychiatric history vs none | Pre-infection | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness @ 6mo | null result | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | multivariable logistic | valid | Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study |
| Infecting pathogen (which agent) | EBV vs Ross River virus vs Coxiella burnetii | Acute phase | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness @ 6mo | null result | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | univariable | valid | Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study |
| Acute cytokine levels (IL-6/IL-1β/IFN-γ/TNF-α/IL-10) → Inflammatory burden | higher acute cytokine levels | Acute phase | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness @ 6mo | null result | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | univariable | valid | Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study |
4 significant · 0 null · 4 temporality-valid · from 1 cohort
| Factor | Contrast | Window | Outcome | Direction | Question | Model | Temporality | Cohort |
|---|
| RABGAP1L locus | risk allele vs reference at the RABGAP1L signal | Genetic / fixed | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | ↑ increases risk | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | mixed effects | valid | DecodeME ME/CFS GWAS |
| FBXL4 locus | risk allele vs reference at the FBXL4 signal | Genetic / fixed | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | ↑ increases risk | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | mixed effects | valid | DecodeME ME/CFS GWAS |
| OLFM4 locus | risk allele vs reference at the OLFM4 signal | Genetic / fixed | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | ↑ increases risk | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | mixed effects | valid | DecodeME ME/CFS GWAS |
| CA10 locus | risk allele vs reference at the CA10 signal | Genetic / fixed | Chronic fatigue syndrome / ME-CFS caseness | ↑ increases risk | Conversion (given infection → syndrome) | mixed effects | valid | DecodeME ME/CFS GWAS |
Factor × pathogen matrix
Temporality-valid predictors only (pre-infection / acute-phase / genetic, in prospective-inception or registry cohorts). Only domains with at least one tested factor are shown; the empty cells within them are the point — most acute-laboratory factors are never tested against the chronic outcome.
tested, significant tested, null tested, conflicting · never tested
| Factor | SARS-CoV-2 | Borrelia burgdorferi (Lyme disease) | Giardia duodenalis (lamblia) | Zika virus | Dengue virus | Unknown / idiopathic trigger | Mixed (EBV / Ross River virus / Coxiella burnetii) | Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) | SARS-CoV-1 | COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA / spike-based) | Chikungunya virus | Coxiella burnetii (Q fever) | Ross River virus | Pandemrix (AS03-adjuvanted H1N1 influenza vaccine) | Ebola virus | West Nile virus | Campylobacter jejuni / E. coli O157:H7 (Walkerton outbreak) |
|---|
| Host demographic |
| Age | · | · | · | · | · | · | null | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Female sex | · | · | · | · | · | · | null | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Body mass index / obesity | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Host genetic |
| HLA type | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Cytokine gene polymorphism | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| GWAS susceptibility locus (generic) | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| HLA-DQB1*06:02 carriage | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | sig | · | · | · |
| FOXP4 locus (rs9367106) | sig | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| RABGAP1L locus | · | · | · | · | · | sig | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| OLFM4 locus | · | · | · | · | · | sig | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| FBXL4 locus | · | · | · | · | · | sig | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| CA10 locus | · | · | · | · | · | sig | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Host prior health |
| Pre-existing comorbidity count | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Pre-existing chronic lung disease | sig | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Prior ME/CFS or fibromyalgia | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Atopy / allergy | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Premorbid psychiatric history | · | · | · | · | · | · | null | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Acute clinical |
| Acute illness severity (composite index) | sig | · | · | · | · | · | sig | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Hospitalisation for acute illness | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| ICU admission | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Fever duration (days) | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Peak temperature | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Symptom count at presentation | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Supplemental oxygen requirement | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Acute neurological involvement | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| WHO warning signs (dengue) | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Time from onset to presentation | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Acute pathogen |
| Viral load / Ct value | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| NS1 antigenaemia (dengue) | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Dengue serotype | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Primary vs secondary infection (serostatus) | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Variant / strain | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Duration of viraemia / shedding | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Antigen persistence at convalescence | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Infecting pathogen (which agent) | · | · | · | · | · | · | null | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Acute immune |
| Acute cytokine levels (IL-6/IL-1β/IFN-γ/TNF-α/IL-10) | · | · | · | · | · | · | null | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Convalescent antibody titre | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Autoantibody presence | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Acute-phase coverage
Which cohorts analysed any acute-phase factor against the chronic outcome (✓), collected but did not analyse it (c), or neither (·). The "c" cells are recoverable through collaboration.
| Cohort | Acute clinical | Acute laboratory | Acute pathogen | Acute treatment | Acute immune |
|---|
| Bergen COVID-19 home-isolated cohort | ✓ | · | · | · | ✓ |
| Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study | ✓ | · | ✓ | · | ✓ |
Every estimate, by factor
All estimates for each factor across cohorts, with contrast, measurement window, adjustment
set and temporality shown per row.
Acute illness severity (composite index) Acute clinical → Acute severity
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| Bergen COVID-19 home-isolated cohort | SARS-CoV-2 | higher acute illness severity | Acute phase | ↑ increases risk | multivariable logistic | age, sex | valid |
| Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study | Mixed (EBV / Ross River virus / Coxiella burnetii) | higher acute illness severity (per unit of the acute symptom-severity score) | Acute phase | ↑ increases risk | multivariable logistic | age, sex, psychological factors, infecting agent | valid |
Infecting pathogen (which agent) Acute pathogen
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study | Mixed (EBV / Ross River virus / Coxiella burnetii) | EBV vs Ross River virus vs Coxiella burnetii | Acute phase | null result | univariable | — | valid |
Acute cytokine levels (IL-6/IL-1β/IFN-γ/TNF-α/IL-10) Acute immune → Inflammatory burden
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study | Mixed (EBV / Ross River virus / Coxiella burnetii) | higher acute cytokine levels | Acute phase | null result | univariable | — | valid |
Convalescent antibody titre Acute immune
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| Bergen COVID-19 home-isolated cohort | SARS-CoV-2 | higher convalescent anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titre | Early convalescent (≤3mo) | ↑ increases risk | multivariable logistic | age, sex | invalid |
Age Host demographic
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study | Mixed (EBV / Ross River virus / Coxiella burnetii) | per year of age | Pre-infection | null result | multivariable logistic | — | valid |
| TELECHIK cohort | Chikungunya virus | older age (per decade / older vs younger) | Pre-infection | ↑ increases risk | multivariable logistic | sex | invalid |
Female sex Host demographic
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| Colombo Dengue Study | Dengue virus | female vs male (among dengue patients) | Genetic / fixed | ↑ increases risk | univariable | — | invalid |
| Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study | Mixed (EBV / Ross River virus / Coxiella burnetii) | female vs male | Genetic / fixed | null result | multivariable logistic | — | valid |
Pre-existing chronic lung disease Host prior health
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| Bergen COVID-19 home-isolated cohort | SARS-CoV-2 | pre-existing chronic lung disease vs none | Pre-infection | ↑ increases risk | multivariable logistic | age, sex | valid |
Premorbid psychiatric history Host prior health
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| Dubbo Infection Outcomes Study | Mixed (EBV / Ross River virus / Coxiella burnetii) | premorbid psychiatric history vs none | Pre-infection | null result | multivariable logistic | — | valid |
HLA-DQB1*06:02 carriage Host genetic
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| Finland Pandemrix childhood narcolepsy cohort | Pandemrix (AS03-adjuvanted H1N1 influenza vaccine) | HLA-DQB1*06:02 positive vs negative | Genetic / fixed | ↑ increases risk | None | — | valid |
FOXP4 locus (rs9367106) Host genetic
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| Long COVID Host Genetics Initiative GWAS | SARS-CoV-2 | rs9367106 risk allele vs reference (per-allele) | Genetic / fixed | ↑ increases risk | mixed effects | genetic principal components, severe acute COVID-19 signal | valid |
RABGAP1L locus Host genetic
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| DecodeME ME/CFS GWAS | Unknown / idiopathic trigger | risk allele vs reference at the RABGAP1L signal | Genetic / fixed | ↑ increases risk | mixed effects | genetic principal components | valid |
OLFM4 locus Host genetic
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| DecodeME ME/CFS GWAS | Unknown / idiopathic trigger | risk allele vs reference at the OLFM4 signal | Genetic / fixed | ↑ increases risk | mixed effects | genetic principal components | valid |
FBXL4 locus Host genetic
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| DecodeME ME/CFS GWAS | Unknown / idiopathic trigger | risk allele vs reference at the FBXL4 signal | Genetic / fixed | ↑ increases risk | mixed effects | genetic principal components | valid |
CA10 locus Host genetic
| Cohort | Pathogen | Contrast | Window | Direction | Model | Adjusted for | Temporality |
|---|
| DecodeME ME/CFS GWAS | Unknown / idiopathic trigger | risk allele vs reference at the CA10 signal | Genetic / fixed | ↑ increases risk | mixed effects | genetic principal components | valid |